How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing summit is another development in the president's efforts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.